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Harborby Signalry
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Estimate · not an appraisal

Montage Healdsburg

Property · Napa / Sonoma folio · Public tapes · Compare tapes · Deal Frame · Diligence kill list · Edit income

Defaults are Harbor by Signalry assumptions unless you replace them with a T12 you actually rebuilt.

Two-minute desk · three moves

Montage Healdsburg

A GM or owner should finish this before the meeting. The harbor number is a labeled worksheet, not an appraisal.

  1. 1 · House
  2. 2 · Income
  3. 3 · Shock

Property page · Napa / Sonoma folio · Start over

Other priced houses

Cited tapes only. Different years and NOI. Not an appraisal.

On the graph

2 · Income · 0 you own

Harbor defaults stay labeled until you type. RevPAR is occ × ADR — not a sold figure. Type a rebuilt NOI to own the cap. Harbor will not invent that dollar.

NOI stops · labels only

These name what your expense ratio includes. They do not invent a reserve, a fee, or a lease payment.

before FF&E reserve; before incentive management fee; before ground lease

Assumptions — replace what you rebuilt

  • · occupancy (hotel assumption — not a T12)
  • · ADR (hotel assumption — not a T12)
  • · expense ratio and rooms-revenue share (Harbor defaults unless you edit)
  • · going-in cap rate (midpoint of Harbor band)

Direct cap · labeled estimate

$380.5M

$2,927,210 / key · after PIP holdback $369.5M

Edit income

Blended band

$78.0Mmid $252.1M$426.2M
Teaching NOI / yr
$25.7M
Going-in cap
6.75%
Implied cap vs tape
9.69%

Uncertainty ±25% · implied RevPAR $812. Implied cap only appears when a cited tape price exists. It is teaching NOI ÷ tape — not a reported going-in and not a T12. Not a sale price Harbor invented.

NOI / cap truth

Teaching NOI = total revenue × (1 − expense ratio), before debt. Type a rebuilt NOI to own the cap. Stops you named: before FF&E reserve; before incentive management fee; before ground lease. The toggles label the ratio — they do not invent a reserve, a fee, or a lease payment. Trailing is evidence. This line is a claim until you replace it.

  1. RevPAR $812 × 130 keys × 365 → rooms $38.5M
  2. ÷ rooms share 42.0% → total $91.7M
  3. × (1 − 72.0%) → teaching NOI $25.7M
  4. ÷ going-in 6.75% → $380.5M from the teaching stack

I · Direct cap

Teaching NOI ÷ cap

A snapshot. Weak as the only pass on a renovation, a trophy, or a house whose next three years are not last year. A typed NOI is still not an appraisal.

II · PPK

Keys as a cross-check

Harbor research bands by segment and tier — not a proprietary survey. A leasehold tape is not a fee PPK.

III · Shock

Cap × ADR / occ

±50 bps against ADR ±10% or occupancy ±5 points. Combined stress is the honesty test.

3 · Shock · cap ±50 bps × ADR ±10%

Rows are going-in cap. Columns are ADR. Tap a cell to apply that shock. Combined stress is wider cap, −10% ADR, and −5 occupancy points.

ADR −10%
ADR base
ADR +10%
−50
Base
+50

Down-left (wider cap, −10% ADR): $318.9M. Combined stress: $291.4M.

Research PPK band

$600,000 – $2,000,000 / key

Harbor defaults by segment and market tier — not a proprietary survey.

Sales comparison

$661,765 – $2,088,235 / key

9 priced / 10 scored

Cited tape vs this worksheet

Tape $2,038,462 / key · Apr 22, 2021 · worksheet $2,927,210 / key

Different years and NOI. The tape is a public consideration, not this worksheet’s T12. Not an appraisal.

Sunstone Q1 2021 Exhibit 99.1: $265.0 million gross for the fee-simple 130-room Montage Healdsburg. Sonoma Montage — not a Napa Four Seasons PPK.

Open the tapeCompare tapes

  1. Four Seasons Resort Napa Valley — Sunstone acquisition · Estimate · Comparescore 122 · $2,088,235 / key

    Sunstone FY2021 Exhibit 99.1: $177.5 million excluding closing costs for the fee-simple 85-room Four Seasons Resort Napa Valley. Wine-country Four Seasons — not an Orlando Disney PPK.

  2. Four Seasons Jackson Hole — Host Hotels acquisition · Estimate · Comparescore 108 · $2,520,000 / key
  3. Alila Ventana Big Sur — Host Hotels acquisition · Estimate · Comparescore 97 · $2,542,373 / key
  4. The Cosmopolitan of Las Vegas — Blackstone to MGM · Estimate · Comparescore 92 · $1,866,535 / key

    Total consideration: cash, assumed CMBS, and residual land — not rooms-only.

  5. Turtle Bay / Ritz-Carlton Oʻahu — Host Hotels acquisition · Estimate · Comparescore 92 · $1,511,111 / key

    Host 2024 10-K: $680 million for the 450-room Turtle Bay Resort plus a 49-acre entitled land parcel, net of Marriott key money. Not a rooms-only PPK.

  6. Henderson Beach Resort — DiamondRock acquisition · Estimate · Comparescore 90 · $661,765 / key
  • · Income lines include Harbor assumptions you can edit.
  • · Luxury and resort files often trade on DCF or replacement cost, not a going-in cap.

Rooms revenue $38.5M · cap 6.75% · teaching NOI $25.7M

Methodology
  • · Direct capitalization: Value = NOI ÷ going-in cap rate.
  • · Room revenue = RevPAR × keys × 365. Total revenue = room revenue ÷ rooms-revenue share.
  • · PIP / renovation reserve is subtracted from the capitalized value as a one-line holdback — not a DCF of the renovation year.
  • · Price-per-key cross-check uses Harbor research bands by segment and market tier.
  • · Sales comparison uses graph transactions scored by segment, market, region, rooms band, recency, affiliation, and whether a public price exists.
  • · NOI stops (FF&E reserve, incentive fee, ground lease) are labels you set. They do not invent dollar amounts.
  • · A NOI you type replaces the teaching stack for the cap. Harbor will not invent that dollar. The shock then is cap ±50 bps only — ADR and occupancy stay labels.
  • · Without a typed NOI, sensitivity shocks going-in cap ±50 basis points against ADR ±10% (occupancy held) and against occupancy ±5 points (ADR held).
  • · Without a typed NOI, the combined stress cell applies all three: wider cap, −10% ADR, and −5 occupancy points. With a typed NOI it is +50 bps on that dollar.
  • · Harbor research defaults are not HVS, PKF, CBRE, or JLL proprietary survey numbers.