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Worksheet · two minutes · not an appraisal

A first number. Then the shock.

House, income, then cap ±50 bps × ADR ±10%. The down-left cell is the honesty test. Share the URL. Print the Deal Frame. Never treat this as a licensed valuation.

Two-minute desk · three moves

Name the house. Then the income. Then the shock.

A GM or owner should finish this before the meeting. The harbor number is a labeled worksheet, not an appraisal.

  1. 1 · House
  2. 2 · Income
  3. 3 · Shock

1 · House

Recent priced houses

Cited tapes only. Different years and NOI. Not an appraisal.

On the graph

2 · Income · 0 you own

Harbor defaults stay labeled until you type. RevPAR is occ × ADR — not a sold figure. Type a rebuilt NOI to own the cap. Harbor will not invent that dollar.

NOI stops · labels only

These name what your expense ratio includes. They do not invent a reserve, a fee, or a lease payment.

before FF&E reserve; before incentive management fee; before ground lease

Assumptions — replace what you rebuilt

  • · custom property — Harbor starting points

Direct cap · labeled estimate

$33.2M

$276,709 / key · after PIP holdback $29.8M

Edit income

Blended band

$25.7Mmid $66.8M$108.0M
Teaching NOI / yr
$2.7M
Going-in cap
8.00%
Implied cap vs tape
—

Uncertainty ±31% · implied RevPAR $150. Implied cap only appears when a cited tape price exists. It is teaching NOI ÷ tape — not a reported going-in and not a T12. Not a sale price Harbor invented.

NOI / cap truth

Teaching NOI = total revenue × (1 − expense ratio), before debt. Type a rebuilt NOI to own the cap. Stops you named: before FF&E reserve; before incentive management fee; before ground lease. The toggles label the ratio — they do not invent a reserve, a fee, or a lease payment. Trailing is evidence. This line is a claim until you replace it.

  1. RevPAR $150 × 120 keys × 365 → rooms $6.6M
  2. ÷ rooms share 74.0% → total $8.9M
  3. × (1 − 70.0%) → teaching NOI $2.7M
  4. ÷ going-in 8.00% → $33.2M from the teaching stack

I · Direct cap

Teaching NOI ÷ cap

A snapshot. Weak as the only pass on a renovation, a trophy, or a house whose next three years are not last year. A typed NOI is still not an appraisal.

II · PPK

Keys as a cross-check

Harbor research bands by segment and tier — not a proprietary survey. A leasehold tape is not a fee PPK.

III · Shock

Cap × ADR / occ

±50 bps against ADR ±10% or occupancy ±5 points. Combined stress is the honesty test.

3 · Shock · cap ±50 bps × ADR ±10%

Rows are going-in cap. Columns are ADR. Tap a cell to apply that shock. Combined stress is wider cap, −10% ADR, and −5 occupancy points.

ADR −10%
ADR base
ADR +10%
−50
Base
+50

Down-left (wider cap, −10% ADR): $28.1M. Combined stress: $26.1M.

Research PPK band

$280,000 – $900,000 / key

Harbor defaults by segment and market tier — not a proprietary survey.

Sales comparison

No priced comps cleared the matcher

0 priced / 0 scored

  1. Hyatt Place Chicago/Lombard — Summit disposition · Estimate · Comparescore 106 · $69,536 / key
  2. Hyatt Place Chicago/Hoffman Estates — Summit disposition · Estimate · Comparescore 106 · $23,810 / key
  3. Hilton Garden Inn Chicago/Oakbrook Terrace — Park disposition · Estimate · Comparescore 106 · $73,438 / key
  4. St. Gregory Hotel — Hersha acquisition · Estimate · Comparescore 102 · $367,742 / key
  5. Capitol Hill Suites — Hersha acquisition · Estimate · Comparescore 98 · $312,500 / key
  6. Kimpton Hotel Monaco Chicago — Xenia disposition · Estimate · Comparescore 96 · $188,482 / key

    Xenia Q1 2022 10-Q: $36.0 million for the 191-room Kimpton Hotel Monaco Chicago. January 2022; day-of-month not named. Downtown Kimpton — not a Monaco Seattle PPK and not a leasehold Mag Mile PPK.

  • · Income lines include Harbor assumptions you can edit.
  • · Only 0 priced comps cleared the matcher.
  • · Custom property — no graph hotel to attach comps.

Rooms revenue $6.6M · cap 8.00% · teaching NOI $2.7M

Methodology
  • · Direct capitalization: Value = NOI ÷ going-in cap rate.
  • · Room revenue = RevPAR × keys × 365. Total revenue = room revenue ÷ rooms-revenue share.
  • · PIP / renovation reserve is subtracted from the capitalized value as a one-line holdback — not a DCF of the renovation year.
  • · Price-per-key cross-check uses Harbor research bands by segment and market tier.
  • · Sales comparison uses graph transactions scored by segment, market, region, rooms band, recency, affiliation, and whether a public price exists.
  • · NOI stops (FF&E reserve, incentive fee, ground lease) are labels you set. They do not invent dollar amounts.
  • · A NOI you type replaces the teaching stack for the cap. Harbor will not invent that dollar. The shock then is cap ±50 bps only — ADR and occupancy stay labels.
  • · Without a typed NOI, sensitivity shocks going-in cap ±50 basis points against ADR ±10% (occupancy held) and against occupancy ±5 points (ADR held).
  • · Without a typed NOI, the combined stress cell applies all three: wider cap, −10% ADR, and −5 occupancy points. With a typed NOI it is +50 bps on that dollar.
  • · Harbor research defaults are not HVS, PKF, CBRE, or JLL proprietary survey numbers.