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Harborby Signalry
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Estimate · not an appraisal

The St. Regis Houston

Property · Houston folio · Public tapes · Compare tapes · Deal Frame · Diligence kill list · Edit income

Defaults are Harbor by Signalry assumptions unless you replace them with a T12 you actually rebuilt.

Two-minute desk · three moves

The St. Regis Houston

A GM or owner should finish this before the meeting. The harbor number is a labeled worksheet, not an appraisal.

  1. 1 · House
  2. 2 · Income
  3. 3 · Shock

Property page · Houston folio · Start over

Other priced houses

Cited tapes only. Different years and NOI. Not an appraisal.

On the graph

2 · Income · 0 you own

Harbor defaults stay labeled until you type. RevPAR is occ × ADR — not a sold figure. Type a rebuilt NOI to own the cap. Harbor will not invent that dollar.

NOI stops · labels only

These name what your expense ratio includes. They do not invent a reserve, a fee, or a lease payment.

before FF&E reserve; before incentive management fee; before ground lease

Assumptions — replace what you rebuilt

  • · occupancy (hotel assumption — not a T12)
  • · ADR (hotel assumption — not a T12)
  • · expense ratio and rooms-revenue share (Harbor defaults unless you edit)
  • · going-in cap rate (midpoint of Harbor band)

Direct cap · labeled estimate

$127.8M

$550,700 / key · after PIP holdback $113.8M

Edit income

Blended band

$44.5Mmid $149.9M$255.2M
Teaching NOI / yr
$8.9M
Going-in cap
7.00%
Implied cap vs tape
17.54%

Uncertainty ±25% · implied RevPAR $236. Implied cap only appears when a cited tape price exists. It is teaching NOI ÷ tape — not a reported going-in and not a T12. Not a sale price Harbor invented.

NOI / cap truth

Teaching NOI = total revenue × (1 − expense ratio), before debt. Type a rebuilt NOI to own the cap. Stops you named: before FF&E reserve; before incentive management fee; before ground lease. The toggles label the ratio — they do not invent a reserve, a fee, or a lease payment. Trailing is evidence. This line is a claim until you replace it.

  1. RevPAR $236 × 232 keys × 365 → rooms $20.0M
  2. ÷ rooms share 58.0% → total $34.4M
  3. × (1 − 74.0%) → teaching NOI $8.9M
  4. ÷ going-in 7.00% → $127.8M from the teaching stack

I · Direct cap

Teaching NOI ÷ cap

A snapshot. Weak as the only pass on a renovation, a trophy, or a house whose next three years are not last year. A typed NOI is still not an appraisal.

II · PPK

Keys as a cross-check

Harbor research bands by segment and tier — not a proprietary survey. A leasehold tape is not a fee PPK.

III · Shock

Cap × ADR / occ

±50 bps against ADR ±10% or occupancy ±5 points. Combined stress is the honesty test.

3 · Shock · cap ±50 bps × ADR ±10%

Rows are going-in cap. Columns are ADR. Tap a cell to apply that shock. Combined stress is wider cap, −10% ADR, and −5 occupancy points.

ADR −10%
ADR base
ADR +10%
−50
Base
+50

Down-left (wider cap, −10% ADR): $107.3M. Combined stress: $98.7M.

Research PPK band

$450,000 – $1,100,000 / key

Harbor defaults by segment and market tier — not a proprietary survey.

Sales comparison

$191,957 – $881,544 / key

10 priced / 10 scored

Cited tape vs this worksheet

Tape $219,828 / key · Jan 1, 2026 · worksheet $550,700 / key

Different years and NOI. The tape is a public consideration, not this worksheet’s T12. Not an appraisal.

Host IR: $51 million for the 232-room St. Regis Houston. Day-of-month not named; Harbor uses January 2026.

Open the tapeCompare tapes

  1. Houston Marriott Energy Corridor — Apple disposition · Estimate · Comparescore 106 · $77,670 / key
  2. Hilton Houston NASA Clear Lake — Ashford disposition · Estimate · Comparescore 106 · $111,570 / key
  3. Le Pavillon — Ashford disposition · Estimate · Comparescore 106 · $188,053 / key
  4. W Nashville — Xenia acquisition · Estimate · Comparescore 104 · $949,711 / key
  5. Fairmont Dallas — Xenia disposition · Estimate · Comparescore 103 · $203,670 / key

    Xenia Exhibit 99.1: $111.0 million for the 545-room Fairmont Dallas. April 2025; day-of-month not named. Downtown luxury — exclusive of an estimated $80 million near-term capex. Not a Plano Hyatt Place PPK.

  6. 1 Hotel Central Park — Host Hotels acquisition · Estimate · Comparescore 98 · $1,132,479 / key
  • · Income lines include Harbor assumptions you can edit.
  • · Luxury and resort files often trade on DCF or replacement cost, not a going-in cap.

Rooms revenue $20.0M · cap 7.00% · teaching NOI $8.9M

Methodology
  • · Direct capitalization: Value = NOI ÷ going-in cap rate.
  • · Room revenue = RevPAR × keys × 365. Total revenue = room revenue ÷ rooms-revenue share.
  • · PIP / renovation reserve is subtracted from the capitalized value as a one-line holdback — not a DCF of the renovation year.
  • · Price-per-key cross-check uses Harbor research bands by segment and market tier.
  • · Sales comparison uses graph transactions scored by segment, market, region, rooms band, recency, affiliation, and whether a public price exists.
  • · NOI stops (FF&E reserve, incentive fee, ground lease) are labels you set. They do not invent dollar amounts.
  • · A NOI you type replaces the teaching stack for the cap. Harbor will not invent that dollar. The shock then is cap ±50 bps only — ADR and occupancy stay labels.
  • · Without a typed NOI, sensitivity shocks going-in cap ±50 basis points against ADR ±10% (occupancy held) and against occupancy ±5 points (ADR held).
  • · Without a typed NOI, the combined stress cell applies all three: wider cap, −10% ADR, and −5 occupancy points. With a typed NOI it is +50 bps on that dollar.
  • · Harbor research defaults are not HVS, PKF, CBRE, or JLL proprietary survey numbers.