Estimate · not an appraisal

Hotel Spero

Property · San Francisco folio · Public tapes · Compare tapes · Deal Frame · Diligence kill list · Edit income

Defaults are Harbor by Signalry assumptions unless you replace them with a T12 you actually rebuilt.

Two-minute desk · three moves

Hotel Spero

A GM or owner should finish this before the meeting. The harbor number is a labeled worksheet, not an appraisal.

1 · House
2 · Income
3 · Shock

On the graph

2 · Income · 0 you own

Harbor defaults stay labeled until you type. RevPAR is occ × ADR — not a sold figure. Type a rebuilt NOI to own the cap. Harbor will not invent that dollar.

KeysHarbor defaultADR ($)Harbor defaultOccupancyHarbor default%RevPAR (derived)$154occ × ADR · not a sold RevPARExpense ratioHarbor default%Rooms revenue shareHarbor default%Going-in capHarbor default%PIP reserve / keyHarbor defaultNOI you own ($ / yr)Blank — teaching stackA T12 you rebuilt. Not a CIM. Not a sale price. Harbor will not invent this number.MarketSegment

NOI stops · labels only

These name what your expense ratio includes. They do not invent a reserve, a fee, or a lease payment.

After FF&E reserve
After incentive fee
After ground lease

before FF&E reserve; before incentive management fee; before ground lease

Affiliation

Assumptions — replace what you rebuilt

· occupancy (hotel assumption — not a T12)
· ADR (hotel assumption — not a T12)
· expense ratio and rooms-revenue share (Harbor defaults unless you edit)
· going-in cap rate (midpoint of Harbor band)

Direct cap · labeled estimate

$65.7M

$278,233 / key · after PIP holdback $60.5M

Edit income

Blended band

$51.9Mmid $82.6M$113.3M

Teaching NOI / yr: $5.1M
Going-in cap: 7.75%
Implied cap vs tape: 7.17%

Uncertainty ±20% · implied RevPAR $154. Implied cap only appears when a cited tape price exists. It is teaching NOI ÷ tape — not a reported going-in and not a T12. Not a sale price Harbor invented.

NOI / cap truth

Teaching NOI = total revenue × (1 − expense ratio), before debt. Type a rebuilt NOI to own the cap. Stops you named: before FF&E reserve; before incentive management fee; before ground lease. The toggles label the ratio — they do not invent a reserve, a fee, or a lease payment. Trailing is evidence. This line is a claim until you replace it.

RevPAR $154 × 236 keys × 365 → rooms $13.2M
÷ rooms share 78.0% → total $17.0M
× (1 − 70.0%) → teaching NOI $5.1M
÷ going-in 7.75% → $65.7M from the teaching stack

I · Direct cap

Teaching NOI ÷ cap

A snapshot. Weak as the only pass on a renovation, a trophy, or a house whose next three years are not last year. A typed NOI is still not an appraisal.

II · PPK

Keys as a cross-check

Harbor research bands by segment and tier — not a proprietary survey. A leasehold tape is not a fee PPK.

III · Shock

Cap × ADR / occ

±50 bps against ADR ±10% or occupancy ±5 points. Combined stress is the honesty test.

3 · Shock · cap ±50 bps × ADR ±10%

Rows are going-in cap. Columns are ADR. Tap a cell to apply that shock. Combined stress is wider cap, −10% ADR, and −5 occupancy points.

ADR −10%

ADR base

ADR +10%

−50Cap −50 bps

BaseCap base

+50Cap +50 bps

Down-left (wider cap, −10% ADR): $55.5M. Combined stress: $51.2M.

Research PPK band

$220,000 – $480,000 / key

Harbor defaults by segment and market tier — not a proprietary survey.

Sales comparison

$251,418 – $360,821 / key

10 priced / 10 scored

Cited tape vs this worksheet

Tape $300,847 / key · Aug 25, 2022 · worksheet $278,233 / key

Different years and NOI. The tape is a public consideration, not this worksheet’s T12. Not an appraisal.

Pebblebrook 8-K: $71.0 million for the 236-room Hotel Spero. Union Square boutique — not a Marker PPK and not a Zoe Wharf PPK.

Open the tape Compare tapes

Hotel Zoe Fisherman’s Wharf — Pebblebrook disposition · Estimate · Comparescore 138 · $309,955 / key
The Marker San Francisco — Pebblebrook disposition · Estimate · Comparescore 138 · $370,192 / key
Villa Florence San Francisco on Union Square — Pebblebrook disposition · Estimate · Comparescore 132 · $462,963 / key
SpringHill Suites Las Vegas Convention Center — Apple Hospitality acquisition · Estimate · Comparescore 120 · $250,836 / key
Montrose at Beverly Hills — Pebblebrook disposition · Estimate · Comparescore 118 · $332,707 / key
Powell / Axiom Hotel San Francisco — Host Hotels acquisition · Estimate · Comparescore 116 · $496,689 / key
Host 10-K / earnings exhibit: $75 million for the 151-room Powell Hotel, 8,554 sf of retail, and the fee-simple land. PPK includes retail and land — not rooms-only.

· Income lines include Harbor assumptions you can edit.

Rooms revenue $13.2M · cap 7.75% · teaching NOI $5.1M

Methodology

· Direct capitalization: Value = NOI ÷ going-in cap rate.
· Room revenue = RevPAR × keys × 365. Total revenue = room revenue ÷ rooms-revenue share.
· PIP / renovation reserve is subtracted from the capitalized value as a one-line holdback — not a DCF of the renovation year.
· Price-per-key cross-check uses Harbor research bands by segment and market tier.
· Sales comparison uses graph transactions scored by segment, market, region, rooms band, recency, affiliation, and whether a public price exists.
· NOI stops (FF&E reserve, incentive fee, ground lease) are labels you set. They do not invent dollar amounts.
· A NOI you type replaces the teaching stack for the cap. Harbor will not invent that dollar. The shock then is cap ±50 bps only — ADR and occupancy stay labels.
· Without a typed NOI, sensitivity shocks going-in cap ±50 basis points against ADR ±10% (occupancy held) and against occupancy ±5 points (ADR held).
· Without a typed NOI, the combined stress cell applies all three: wider cap, −10% ADR, and −5 occupancy points. With a typed NOI it is +50 bps on that dollar.
· Harbor research defaults are not HVS, PKF, CBRE, or JLL proprietary survey numbers.