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Harborby Signalry
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Estimate · not an appraisal

Hotel Zoe Fisherman’s Wharf

Property · San Francisco folio · Public tapes · Compare tapes · Deal Frame · Diligence kill list · Edit income

Defaults are Harbor by Signalry assumptions unless you replace them with a T12 you actually rebuilt.

Two-minute desk · three moves

Hotel Zoe Fisherman’s Wharf

A GM or owner should finish this before the meeting. The harbor number is a labeled worksheet, not an appraisal.

  1. 1 · House
  2. 2 · Income
  3. 3 · Shock

Property page · San Francisco folio · Start over

Other priced houses

Cited tapes only. Different years and NOI. Not an appraisal.

On the graph

2 · Income · 0 you own

Harbor defaults stay labeled until you type. RevPAR is occ × ADR — not a sold figure. Type a rebuilt NOI to own the cap. Harbor will not invent that dollar.

NOI stops · labels only

These name what your expense ratio includes. They do not invent a reserve, a fee, or a lease payment.

before FF&E reserve; before incentive management fee; before ground lease

Assumptions — replace what you rebuilt

  • · occupancy (hotel assumption — not a T12)
  • · ADR (hotel assumption — not a T12)
  • · expense ratio and rooms-revenue share (Harbor defaults unless you edit)
  • · going-in cap rate (midpoint of Harbor band)

Direct cap · labeled estimate

$61.5M

$278,233 / key · after PIP holdback $56.6M

Edit income

Blended band

$48.6Mmid $77.3M$106.1M
Teaching NOI / yr
$4.8M
Going-in cap
7.75%
Implied cap vs tape
6.96%

Uncertainty ±20% · implied RevPAR $154. Implied cap only appears when a cited tape price exists. It is teaching NOI ÷ tape — not a reported going-in and not a T12. Not a sale price Harbor invented.

NOI / cap truth

Teaching NOI = total revenue × (1 − expense ratio), before debt. Type a rebuilt NOI to own the cap. Stops you named: before FF&E reserve; before incentive management fee; before ground lease. The toggles label the ratio — they do not invent a reserve, a fee, or a lease payment. Trailing is evidence. This line is a claim until you replace it.

  1. RevPAR $154 × 221 keys × 365 → rooms $12.4M
  2. ÷ rooms share 78.0% → total $15.9M
  3. × (1 − 70.0%) → teaching NOI $4.8M
  4. ÷ going-in 7.75% → $61.5M from the teaching stack

I · Direct cap

Teaching NOI ÷ cap

A snapshot. Weak as the only pass on a renovation, a trophy, or a house whose next three years are not last year. A typed NOI is still not an appraisal.

II · PPK

Keys as a cross-check

Harbor research bands by segment and tier — not a proprietary survey. A leasehold tape is not a fee PPK.

III · Shock

Cap × ADR / occ

±50 bps against ADR ±10% or occupancy ±5 points. Combined stress is the honesty test.

3 · Shock · cap ±50 bps × ADR ±10%

Rows are going-in cap. Columns are ADR. Tap a cell to apply that shock. Combined stress is wider cap, −10% ADR, and −5 occupancy points.

ADR −10%
ADR base
ADR +10%
−50
Base
+50

Down-left (wider cap, −10% ADR): $52.0M. Combined stress: $47.9M.

Research PPK band

$220,000 – $480,000 / key

Harbor defaults by segment and market tier — not a proprietary survey.

Sales comparison

$256,719 – $439,770 / key

10 priced / 10 scored

Cited tape vs this worksheet

Tape $309,955 / key · Nov 14, 2023 · worksheet $278,233 / key

Different years and NOI. The tape is a public consideration, not this worksheet’s T12. Not an appraisal.

Pebblebrook 8-K: $68.5 million for the 221-room Hotel Zoe Fisherman’s Wharf. Wharf boutique — not an Embarcadero convention PPK and not Park’s $80 million Centric.

Open the tapeCompare tapes

  1. The Marker San Francisco — Pebblebrook disposition · Estimate · Comparescore 138 · $370,192 / key
  2. Hotel Spero — Pebblebrook disposition · Estimate · Comparescore 138 · $300,847 / key
  3. Villa Florence San Francisco on Union Square — Pebblebrook disposition · Estimate · Comparescore 132 · $462,963 / key
  4. Montrose at Beverly Hills — Pebblebrook disposition · Estimate · Comparescore 118 · $332,707 / key
  5. Powell / Axiom Hotel San Francisco — Host Hotels acquisition · Estimate · Comparescore 116 · $496,689 / key

    Host 10-K / earnings exhibit: $75 million for the 151-room Powell Hotel, 8,554 sf of retail, and the fee-simple land. PPK includes retail and land — not rooms-only.

  6. Hyatt Centric Fisherman’s Wharf — Park Hotels disposition · Estimate · Comparescore 114 · $253,165 / key
  • · Income lines include Harbor assumptions you can edit.

Rooms revenue $12.4M · cap 7.75% · teaching NOI $4.8M

Methodology
  • · Direct capitalization: Value = NOI ÷ going-in cap rate.
  • · Room revenue = RevPAR × keys × 365. Total revenue = room revenue ÷ rooms-revenue share.
  • · PIP / renovation reserve is subtracted from the capitalized value as a one-line holdback — not a DCF of the renovation year.
  • · Price-per-key cross-check uses Harbor research bands by segment and market tier.
  • · Sales comparison uses graph transactions scored by segment, market, region, rooms band, recency, affiliation, and whether a public price exists.
  • · NOI stops (FF&E reserve, incentive fee, ground lease) are labels you set. They do not invent dollar amounts.
  • · A NOI you type replaces the teaching stack for the cap. Harbor will not invent that dollar. The shock then is cap ±50 bps only — ADR and occupancy stay labels.
  • · Without a typed NOI, sensitivity shocks going-in cap ±50 basis points against ADR ±10% (occupancy held) and against occupancy ±5 points (ADR held).
  • · Without a typed NOI, the combined stress cell applies all three: wider cap, −10% ADR, and −5 occupancy points. With a typed NOI it is +50 bps on that dollar.
  • · Harbor research defaults are not HVS, PKF, CBRE, or JLL proprietary survey numbers.