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Harborby Signalry
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Estimate · not an appraisal

21c Hotel Nashville

Property · Nashville folio · Public tapes · Compare tapes · Deal Frame · Diligence kill list · Edit income

Defaults are Harbor by Signalry assumptions unless you replace them with a T12 you actually rebuilt.

Two-minute desk · three moves

21c Hotel Nashville

A GM or owner should finish this before the meeting. The harbor number is a labeled worksheet, not an appraisal.

  1. 1 · House
  2. 2 · Income
  3. 3 · Shock

Property page · Nashville folio · Start over

Other priced houses

Cited tapes only. Different years and NOI. Not an appraisal.

On the graph

2 · Income · 0 you own

Harbor defaults stay labeled until you type. RevPAR is occ × ADR — not a sold figure. Type a rebuilt NOI to own the cap. Harbor will not invent that dollar.

NOI stops · labels only

These name what your expense ratio includes. They do not invent a reserve, a fee, or a lease payment.

before FF&E reserve; before incentive management fee; before ground lease

Assumptions — replace what you rebuilt

  • · occupancy (hotel assumption — not a T12)
  • · ADR (hotel assumption — not a T12)
  • · expense ratio and rooms-revenue share (Harbor defaults unless you edit)
  • · going-in cap rate (midpoint of Harbor band)

Direct cap · labeled estimate

$43.3M

$348,822 / key · after PIP holdback $41.0M

Edit income

Blended band

$15.7Mmid $32.1M$48.4M
Teaching NOI / yr
$3.7M
Going-in cap
8.50%
Implied cap vs tape
6.23%

Uncertainty ±20% · implied RevPAR $177. Implied cap only appears when a cited tape price exists. It is teaching NOI ÷ tape — not a reported going-in and not a T12. Not a sale price Harbor invented.

NOI / cap truth

Teaching NOI = total revenue × (1 − expense ratio), before debt. Type a rebuilt NOI to own the cap. Stops you named: before FF&E reserve; before incentive management fee; before ground lease. The toggles label the ratio — they do not invent a reserve, a fee, or a lease payment. Trailing is evidence. This line is a claim until you replace it.

  1. RevPAR $177 × 124 keys × 365 → rooms $8.0M
  2. ÷ rooms share 74.0% → total $10.8M
  3. × (1 − 66.0%) → teaching NOI $3.7M
  4. ÷ going-in 8.50% → $43.3M from the teaching stack

I · Direct cap

Teaching NOI ÷ cap

A snapshot. Weak as the only pass on a renovation, a trophy, or a house whose next three years are not last year. A typed NOI is still not an appraisal.

II · PPK

Keys as a cross-check

Harbor research bands by segment and tier — not a proprietary survey. A leasehold tape is not a fee PPK.

III · Shock

Cap × ADR / occ

±50 bps against ADR ±10% or occupancy ±5 points. Combined stress is the honesty test.

3 · Shock · cap ±50 bps × ADR ±10%

Rows are going-in cap. Columns are ADR. Tap a cell to apply that shock. Combined stress is wider cap, −10% ADR, and −5 occupancy points.

ADR −10%
ADR base
ADR +10%
−50
Base
+50

Down-left (wider cap, −10% ADR): $36.8M. Combined stress: $34.1M.

Research PPK band

$140,000 – $300,000 / key

Harbor defaults by segment and market tier — not a proprietary survey.

Sales comparison

$126,539 – $280,718 / key

10 priced / 10 scored

Cited tape vs this worksheet

Tape $475,806 / key · Jul 29, 2022 · worksheet $348,822 / key

Different years and NOI. The tape is a public consideration, not this worksheet’s T12. Not an appraisal.

RLJ 2022 10-K table: $59.0 million for the existing 124-room 21c Hotel Nashville. Downtown 21c — not a Motto Nashville PPK.

Open the tapeCompare tapes

  1. Homewood Suites Nashville-Brentwood — Chatham disposition · Estimate · Comparescore 130 · $123,967 / key
  2. Homewood Suites Orlando-Maitland — Chatham disposition · Estimate · Comparescore 120 · $108,392 / key

    Chatham 10-K: $15.5 million for Homewood Suites Orlando-Maitland. Keys from Chatham’s YE 2023 table (143). Suburban extended-stay — not a Disney PPK.

  3. Homewood Suites Tampa-Brandon — Apple Hospitality acquisition · Estimate · Comparescore 114 · $149,206 / key
  4. Hotel Vintage Portland — Pebblebrook disposition · Estimate · Comparescore 114 · $281,197 / key

    Pebblebrook 8-K: $32.9 million for the 117-room Hotel Vintage Portland. Downtown boutique — not a Heathman PPK and not a Vintage Seattle PPK.

  5. Hyatt Place Greenville — Apple Hospitality acquisition · Estimate · Comparescore 114 · $230,769 / key
  6. Hyatt Place Jacksonville — Apple Hospitality acquisition · Estimate · Comparescore 114 · $121,260 / key
  • · Income lines include Harbor assumptions you can edit.

Rooms revenue $8.0M · cap 8.50% · teaching NOI $3.7M

Methodology
  • · Direct capitalization: Value = NOI ÷ going-in cap rate.
  • · Room revenue = RevPAR × keys × 365. Total revenue = room revenue ÷ rooms-revenue share.
  • · PIP / renovation reserve is subtracted from the capitalized value as a one-line holdback — not a DCF of the renovation year.
  • · Price-per-key cross-check uses Harbor research bands by segment and market tier.
  • · Sales comparison uses graph transactions scored by segment, market, region, rooms band, recency, affiliation, and whether a public price exists.
  • · NOI stops (FF&E reserve, incentive fee, ground lease) are labels you set. They do not invent dollar amounts.
  • · A NOI you type replaces the teaching stack for the cap. Harbor will not invent that dollar. The shock then is cap ±50 bps only — ADR and occupancy stay labels.
  • · Without a typed NOI, sensitivity shocks going-in cap ±50 basis points against ADR ±10% (occupancy held) and against occupancy ±5 points (ADR held).
  • · Without a typed NOI, the combined stress cell applies all three: wider cap, −10% ADR, and −5 occupancy points. With a typed NOI it is +50 bps on that dollar.
  • · Harbor research defaults are not HVS, PKF, CBRE, or JLL proprietary survey numbers.