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Harborby Signalry
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Estimate · not an appraisal

Gurney’s Newport Resort & Marina

Property · Newport folio · Public tapes · Compare tapes · Deal Frame · Diligence kill list · Edit income

Defaults are Harbor by Signalry assumptions unless you replace them with a T12 you actually rebuilt.

Two-minute desk · three moves

Gurney’s Newport Resort & Marina

A GM or owner should finish this before the meeting. The harbor number is a labeled worksheet, not an appraisal.

  1. 1 · House
  2. 2 · Income
  3. 3 · Shock

Property page · Newport folio · Start over

Other priced houses

Cited tapes only. Different years and NOI. Not an appraisal.

On the graph

2 · Income · 0 you own

Harbor defaults stay labeled until you type. RevPAR is occ × ADR — not a sold figure. Type a rebuilt NOI to own the cap. Harbor will not invent that dollar.

NOI stops · labels only

These name what your expense ratio includes. They do not invent a reserve, a fee, or a lease payment.

before FF&E reserve; before incentive management fee; before ground lease

Assumptions — replace what you rebuilt

  • · occupancy (hotel assumption — not a T12)
  • · ADR (hotel assumption — not a T12)
  • · expense ratio and rooms-revenue share (Harbor defaults unless you edit)
  • · going-in cap rate (midpoint of Harbor band)

Direct cap · labeled estimate

$215.5M

$838,564 / key · after PIP holdback $193.7M

Edit income

Blended band

$67.2Mmid $290.6M$514.0M
Teaching NOI / yr
$14.5M
Going-in cap
6.75%
Implied cap vs tape
8.36%

Uncertainty ±25% · implied RevPAR $252. Implied cap only appears when a cited tape price exists. It is teaching NOI ÷ tape — not a reported going-in and not a T12. Not a sale price Harbor invented.

NOI / cap truth

Teaching NOI = total revenue × (1 − expense ratio), before debt. Type a rebuilt NOI to own the cap. Stops you named: before FF&E reserve; before incentive management fee; before ground lease. The toggles label the ratio — they do not invent a reserve, a fee, or a lease payment. Trailing is evidence. This line is a claim until you replace it.

  1. RevPAR $252 × 257 keys × 365 → rooms $23.6M
  2. ÷ rooms share 52.0% → total $45.5M
  3. × (1 − 68.0%) → teaching NOI $14.5M
  4. ÷ going-in 6.75% → $215.5M from the teaching stack

I · Direct cap

Teaching NOI ÷ cap

A snapshot. Weak as the only pass on a renovation, a trophy, or a house whose next three years are not last year. A typed NOI is still not an appraisal.

II · PPK

Keys as a cross-check

Harbor research bands by segment and tier — not a proprietary survey. A leasehold tape is not a fee PPK.

III · Shock

Cap × ADR / occ

±50 bps against ADR ±10% or occupancy ±5 points. Combined stress is the honesty test.

3 · Shock · cap ±50 bps × ADR ±10%

Rows are going-in cap. Columns are ADR. Tap a cell to apply that shock. Combined stress is wider cap, −10% ADR, and −5 occupancy points.

ADR −10%
ADR base
ADR +10%
−50
Base
+50

Down-left (wider cap, −10% ADR): $180.6M. Combined stress: $165.5M.

Research PPK band

$600,000 – $2,000,000 / key

Harbor defaults by segment and market tier — not a proprietary survey.

Sales comparison

$261,438 – $949,711 / key

9 priced / 10 scored

Cited tape vs this worksheet

Tape $677,043 / key · Jun 23, 2022 · worksheet $838,564 / key

Different years and NOI. The tape is a public consideration, not this worksheet’s T12. Not an appraisal.

Pebblebrook 8-K: $174.0 million for the 257-room Gurney’s Newport Resort & Marina. Newport resort — not a Watch Hill palace PPK.

Open the tapeCompare tapes

  1. 1 Hotel Central Park — Host Hotels acquisition · Estimate · Comparescore 112 · $1,132,479 / key
  2. Sofitel Philadelphia at Rittenhouse Square — Pebblebrook disposition · Estimate · Comparescore 112 · $261,438 / key
  3. Jekyll Island Club Resort — Pebblebrook acquisition · Estimate · Comparescore 108 · $470,000 / key

    Pebblebrook 8-K: $94.0 million for the 200-room Jekyll Island Club Resort. Golden Isles Club — not a Savannah Tribute PPK.

  4. Le Pavillon — Ashford disposition · Estimate · Comparescore 106 · $188,053 / key
  5. Henderson Beach Resort — DiamondRock acquisition · Estimate · Comparescore 98 · $661,765 / key
  6. The St. Regis Houston — Host Hotels disposition · Estimate · Comparescore 92 · $219,828 / key
  • · Income lines include Harbor assumptions you can edit.
  • · Luxury and resort files often trade on DCF or replacement cost, not a going-in cap.

Rooms revenue $23.6M · cap 6.75% · teaching NOI $14.5M

Methodology
  • · Direct capitalization: Value = NOI ÷ going-in cap rate.
  • · Room revenue = RevPAR × keys × 365. Total revenue = room revenue ÷ rooms-revenue share.
  • · PIP / renovation reserve is subtracted from the capitalized value as a one-line holdback — not a DCF of the renovation year.
  • · Price-per-key cross-check uses Harbor research bands by segment and market tier.
  • · Sales comparison uses graph transactions scored by segment, market, region, rooms band, recency, affiliation, and whether a public price exists.
  • · NOI stops (FF&E reserve, incentive fee, ground lease) are labels you set. They do not invent dollar amounts.
  • · A NOI you type replaces the teaching stack for the cap. Harbor will not invent that dollar. The shock then is cap ±50 bps only — ADR and occupancy stay labels.
  • · Without a typed NOI, sensitivity shocks going-in cap ±50 basis points against ADR ±10% (occupancy held) and against occupancy ±5 points (ADR held).
  • · Without a typed NOI, the combined stress cell applies all three: wider cap, −10% ADR, and −5 occupancy points. With a typed NOI it is +50 bps on that dollar.
  • · Harbor research defaults are not HVS, PKF, CBRE, or JLL proprietary survey numbers.