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Estimate · not an appraisal

The Bush Hotel (Part Comprising The Elevation Above Ground Floor And Rear Structure In The Street Front To The Borough And The Western, Southern And Part Of The Eastern Ranges In The Yard Behind)

Property · Europe (other) folio · Public tapes · Compare tapes · Deal Frame · Diligence kill list · Edit income

Defaults are Harbor by Signalry assumptions unless you replace them with a T12 you actually rebuilt. Key count was missing on the open graph — replace the 120-room stand-in.

Two-minute desk · three moves

The Bush Hotel (Part Comprising The Elevation Above Ground Floor And Rear Structure In The Street Front To The Borough And The Western, Southern And Part Of The Eastern Ranges In The Yard Behind)

A GM or owner should finish this before the meeting. The harbor number is a labeled worksheet, not an appraisal.

  1. 1 · House
  2. 2 · Income
  3. 3 · Shock

Property page · Europe (other) folio · Start over

Other priced houses

Cited tapes only. Different years and NOI. Not an appraisal.

On the graph

2 · Income · 0 you own

Harbor defaults stay labeled until you type. RevPAR is occ × ADR — not a sold figure. Type a rebuilt NOI to own the cap. Harbor will not invent that dollar.

NOI stops · labels only

These name what your expense ratio includes. They do not invent a reserve, a fee, or a lease payment.

before FF&E reserve; before incentive management fee; before ground lease

Assumptions — replace what you rebuilt

  • · occupancy (Harbor segment/market default)
  • · ADR (Harbor segment/market default)
  • · key count (open graph did not publish rooms — Harbor assumed 120)
  • · expense ratio and rooms-revenue share (Harbor defaults unless you edit)
  • · going-in cap rate (midpoint of Harbor band)

Direct cap · labeled estimate

$30.4M

$253,496 / key · after PIP holdback $27.1M

Edit income

Blended band

$19.2Mmid $34.8M$50.4M
Teaching NOI / yr
$2.6M
Going-in cap
8.50%
Implied cap vs tape
—

Uncertainty ±20% · implied RevPAR $152. Implied cap only appears when a cited tape price exists. It is teaching NOI ÷ tape — not a reported going-in and not a T12. Not a sale price Harbor invented.

NOI / cap truth

Teaching NOI = total revenue × (1 − expense ratio), before debt. Type a rebuilt NOI to own the cap. Stops you named: before FF&E reserve; before incentive management fee; before ground lease. The toggles label the ratio — they do not invent a reserve, a fee, or a lease payment. Trailing is evidence. This line is a claim until you replace it.

  1. RevPAR $152 × 120 keys × 365 → rooms $6.6M
  2. ÷ rooms share 72.0% → total $9.2M
  3. × (1 − 72.0%) → teaching NOI $2.6M
  4. ÷ going-in 8.50% → $30.4M from the teaching stack

I · Direct cap

Teaching NOI ÷ cap

A snapshot. Weak as the only pass on a renovation, a trophy, or a house whose next three years are not last year. A typed NOI is still not an appraisal.

II · PPK

Keys as a cross-check

Harbor research bands by segment and tier — not a proprietary survey. A leasehold tape is not a fee PPK.

III · Shock

Cap × ADR / occ

±50 bps against ADR ±10% or occupancy ±5 points. Combined stress is the honesty test.

3 · Shock · cap ±50 bps × ADR ±10%

Rows are going-in cap. Columns are ADR. Tap a cell to apply that shock. Combined stress is wider cap, −10% ADR, and −5 occupancy points.

ADR −10%
ADR base
ADR +10%
−50
Base
+50

Down-left (wider cap, −10% ADR): $25.9M. Combined stress: $23.9M.

Research PPK band

$160,000 – $420,000 / key

Harbor defaults by segment and market tier — not a proprietary survey.

Sales comparison

$298,013 – $367,742 / key

9 priced / 10 scored

  1. St. Gregory Hotel — Hersha acquisition · Estimate · Comparescore 94 · $367,742 / key
  2. The Berkeley Hotel — Apple Hospitality acquisition · Estimate · Comparescore 91 · $125,000 / key
  3. The Heathman Hotel — Pebblebrook disposition · Estimate · Comparescore 90 · $298,013 / key

    Pebblebrook 10-Q: $45.0 million for The Heathman Hotel, Portland. Closed February 22, 2023. Keys (151) from Pebblebrook IR. Downtown independent — not a waterfront palace PPK.

  4. Hotel Teatro — RLJ acquisition · Estimate · Comparescore 90 · $322,727 / key

    RLJ Q2 2024 10-Q: $35.5 million for the 110-room Hotel Teatro, Denver. Downtown historic boutique — not a Monaco Denver PPK and not the Beacon Hill land line.

  5. Capitol Hill Suites — Hersha acquisition · Estimate · Comparescore 90 · $312,500 / key
  6. Shinola Hotel — opening (Bedrock) · Estimatescore 88 · undisclosed
  • · Income lines include Harbor assumptions you can edit.

Rooms revenue $6.6M · cap 8.50% · teaching NOI $2.6M

Methodology
  • · Direct capitalization: Value = NOI ÷ going-in cap rate.
  • · Room revenue = RevPAR × keys × 365. Total revenue = room revenue ÷ rooms-revenue share.
  • · PIP / renovation reserve is subtracted from the capitalized value as a one-line holdback — not a DCF of the renovation year.
  • · Price-per-key cross-check uses Harbor research bands by segment and market tier.
  • · Sales comparison uses graph transactions scored by segment, market, region, rooms band, recency, affiliation, and whether a public price exists.
  • · NOI stops (FF&E reserve, incentive fee, ground lease) are labels you set. They do not invent dollar amounts.
  • · A NOI you type replaces the teaching stack for the cap. Harbor will not invent that dollar. The shock then is cap ±50 bps only — ADR and occupancy stay labels.
  • · Without a typed NOI, sensitivity shocks going-in cap ±50 basis points against ADR ±10% (occupancy held) and against occupancy ±5 points (ADR held).
  • · Without a typed NOI, the combined stress cell applies all three: wider cap, −10% ADR, and −5 occupancy points. With a typed NOI it is +50 bps on that dollar.
  • · Harbor research defaults are not HVS, PKF, CBRE, or JLL proprietary survey numbers.