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Harborby Signalry
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Estimate · not an appraisal

Conrad Singapore Orchard

Property · Singapore folio · Public tapes · Compare tapes · Deal Frame · Diligence kill list · Edit income

Defaults are Harbor by Signalry assumptions unless you replace them with a T12 you actually rebuilt.

Two-minute desk · three moves

Conrad Singapore Orchard

A GM or owner should finish this before the meeting. The harbor number is a labeled worksheet, not an appraisal.

  1. 1 · House
  2. 2 · Income
  3. 3 · Shock

Property page · Singapore folio · Start over

Other priced houses

Cited tapes only. Different years and NOI. Not an appraisal.

On the graph

2 · Income · 0 you own

Harbor defaults stay labeled until you type. RevPAR is occ × ADR — not a sold figure. Type a rebuilt NOI to own the cap. Harbor will not invent that dollar.

NOI stops · labels only

These name what your expense ratio includes. They do not invent a reserve, a fee, or a lease payment.

before FF&E reserve; before incentive management fee; before ground lease

Assumptions — replace what you rebuilt

  • · occupancy (Harbor segment/market default)
  • · ADR (Harbor segment/market default)
  • · expense ratio and rooms-revenue share (Harbor defaults unless you edit)
  • · going-in cap rate (midpoint of Harbor band)

Direct cap · labeled estimate

$51.8M

$117,649 / key · after PIP holdback $48.9M

Edit income

Blended band

$24.2Mmid $102.7M$181.2M
Teaching NOI / yr
$5.6M
Going-in cap
10.75%
Implied cap vs tape
—

Uncertainty ±20% · implied RevPAR $69. Implied cap only appears when a cited tape price exists. It is teaching NOI ÷ tape — not a reported going-in and not a T12. Not a sale price Harbor invented.

NOI / cap truth

Teaching NOI = total revenue × (1 − expense ratio), before debt. Type a rebuilt NOI to own the cap. Stops you named: before FF&E reserve; before incentive management fee; before ground lease. The toggles label the ratio — they do not invent a reserve, a fee, or a lease payment. Trailing is evidence. This line is a claim until you replace it.

  1. RevPAR $69 × 440 keys × 365 → rooms $11.1M
  2. ÷ rooms share 96.0% → total $11.6M
  3. × (1 − 52.0%) → teaching NOI $5.6M
  4. ÷ going-in 10.75% → $51.8M from the teaching stack

I · Direct cap

Teaching NOI ÷ cap

A snapshot. Weak as the only pass on a renovation, a trophy, or a house whose next three years are not last year. A typed NOI is still not an appraisal.

II · PPK

Keys as a cross-check

Harbor research bands by segment and tier — not a proprietary survey. A leasehold tape is not a fee PPK.

III · Shock

Cap × ADR / occ

±50 bps against ADR ±10% or occupancy ±5 points. Combined stress is the honesty test.

3 · Shock · cap ±50 bps × ADR ±10%

Rows are going-in cap. Columns are ADR. Tap a cell to apply that shock. Combined stress is wider cap, −10% ADR, and −5 occupancy points.

ADR −10%
ADR base
ADR +10%
−50
Base
+50

Down-left (wider cap, −10% ADR): $44.5M. Combined stress: $41.1M.

Research PPK band

$55,000 – $120,000 / key

Harbor defaults by segment and market tier — not a proprietary survey.

Sales comparison

$208,850 – $411,706 / key

10 priced / 10 scored

  1. Westin Washington D.C. City Center — DiamondRock disposition · Estimate · Comparescore 74 · $224,390 / key
  2. Hilton La Jolla Torrey Pines — Braemar disposition · Estimate · Comparescore 74 · $418,782 / key

    Braemar Exhibit 99.1: $165 million for the 394-room Hilton La Jolla Torrey Pines. Golf-adjacent resort box — not a Hotel del Coronado PPK.

  3. Hyatt Centric Chicago Magnificent Mile — Sunstone leasehold disposition · Estimate · Comparescore 74 · $161,098 / key

    Sunstone Exhibit 99.1: $67.5 million contractual for the leasehold interest in the 419-room Hyatt Centric Chicago Magnificent Mile. Leasehold — not a fee palace PPK.

  4. Hilton Miami Airport Blue Lagoon — Park Hotels disposition · Estimate · Comparescore 68 · $232,776 / key
  5. Hilton Seattle Airport & Conference Center — Park disposition · Estimate · Comparescore 68 · $45,455 / key

    Park IR: $18 million gross for the 396-room Hilton Seattle Airport on a short-term ground lease. Anticipated capex over $25 million is Park’s narrative. Not a waterfront PPK.

  6. Embassy Suites La Jolla — Sunstone disposition · Estimate · Comparescore 68 · $666,765 / key

    Sunstone FY2021 Exhibit 99.1: $226.7 million contractual for the 340-room Embassy Suites La Jolla. La Jolla Embassy — not an Estancia leasehold PPK.

  • · Income lines include Harbor assumptions you can edit.

Rooms revenue $11.1M · cap 10.75% · teaching NOI $5.6M

Methodology
  • · Direct capitalization: Value = NOI ÷ going-in cap rate.
  • · Room revenue = RevPAR × keys × 365. Total revenue = room revenue ÷ rooms-revenue share.
  • · PIP / renovation reserve is subtracted from the capitalized value as a one-line holdback — not a DCF of the renovation year.
  • · Price-per-key cross-check uses Harbor research bands by segment and market tier.
  • · Sales comparison uses graph transactions scored by segment, market, region, rooms band, recency, affiliation, and whether a public price exists.
  • · NOI stops (FF&E reserve, incentive fee, ground lease) are labels you set. They do not invent dollar amounts.
  • · A NOI you type replaces the teaching stack for the cap. Harbor will not invent that dollar. The shock then is cap ±50 bps only — ADR and occupancy stay labels.
  • · Without a typed NOI, sensitivity shocks going-in cap ±50 basis points against ADR ±10% (occupancy held) and against occupancy ±5 points (ADR held).
  • · Without a typed NOI, the combined stress cell applies all three: wider cap, −10% ADR, and −5 occupancy points. With a typed NOI it is +50 bps on that dollar.
  • · Harbor research defaults are not HVS, PKF, CBRE, or JLL proprietary survey numbers.