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Harborby Signalry
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Estimate · not an appraisal

DoubleTree Hotel Metropolitan New York City

Property · New York folio · Public tapes · Compare tapes · Deal Frame · Diligence kill list · Edit income

Defaults are Harbor by Signalry assumptions unless you replace them with a T12 you actually rebuilt.

Two-minute desk · three moves

DoubleTree Hotel Metropolitan New York City

A GM or owner should finish this before the meeting. The harbor number is a labeled worksheet, not an appraisal.

  1. 1 · House
  2. 2 · Income
  3. 3 · Shock

Property page · New York folio · Start over

Other priced houses

Cited tapes only. Different years and NOI. Not an appraisal.

On the graph

2 · Income · 0 you own

Harbor defaults stay labeled until you type. RevPAR is occ × ADR — not a sold figure. Type a rebuilt NOI to own the cap. Harbor will not invent that dollar.

NOI stops · labels only

These name what your expense ratio includes. They do not invent a reserve, a fee, or a lease payment.

before FF&E reserve; before incentive management fee; before ground lease

Assumptions — replace what you rebuilt

  • · occupancy (hotel assumption — not a T12)
  • · ADR (hotel assumption — not a T12)
  • · expense ratio and rooms-revenue share (Harbor defaults unless you edit)
  • · going-in cap rate (midpoint of Harbor band)

Direct cap · labeled estimate

$213.9M

$280,021 / key · after PIP holdback $183.4M

Edit income

Blended band

$157.7Mmid $403.6M$649.4M
Teaching NOI / yr
$15.0M
Going-in cap
7.00%
Implied cap vs tape
8.86%

Uncertainty ±20% · implied RevPAR $150. Implied cap only appears when a cited tape price exists. It is teaching NOI ÷ tape — not a reported going-in and not a T12. Not a sale price Harbor invented.

NOI / cap truth

Teaching NOI = total revenue × (1 − expense ratio), before debt. Type a rebuilt NOI to own the cap. Stops you named: before FF&E reserve; before incentive management fee; before ground lease. The toggles label the ratio — they do not invent a reserve, a fee, or a lease payment. Trailing is evidence. This line is a claim until you replace it.

  1. RevPAR $150 × 764 keys × 365 → rooms $41.7M
  2. ÷ rooms share 78.0% → total $53.5M
  3. × (1 − 72.0%) → teaching NOI $15.0M
  4. ÷ going-in 7.00% → $213.9M from the teaching stack

I · Direct cap

Teaching NOI ÷ cap

A snapshot. Weak as the only pass on a renovation, a trophy, or a house whose next three years are not last year. A typed NOI is still not an appraisal.

II · PPK

Keys as a cross-check

Harbor research bands by segment and tier — not a proprietary survey. A leasehold tape is not a fee PPK.

III · Shock

Cap × ADR / occ

±50 bps against ADR ±10% or occupancy ±5 points. Combined stress is the honesty test.

3 · Shock · cap ±50 bps × ADR ±10%

Rows are going-in cap. Columns are ADR. Tap a cell to apply that shock. Combined stress is wider cap, −10% ADR, and −5 occupancy points.

ADR −10%
ADR base
ADR +10%
−50
Base
+50

Down-left (wider cap, −10% ADR): $179.7M. Combined stress: $166.5M.

Research PPK band

$350,000 – $850,000 / key

Harbor defaults by segment and market tier — not a proprietary survey.

Sales comparison

$215,357 – $379,900 / key

10 priced / 10 scored

Cited tape vs this worksheet

Tape $221,204 / key · Dec 1, 2021 · worksheet $280,021 / key

Different years and NOI. The tape is a public consideration, not this worksheet’s T12. Not an appraisal.

RLJ Q4 2021 8-K Exhibit 99.1: $169.0 million gross for the 764-room DoubleTree Hotel Metropolitan New York City. December 2021; day-of-month not named. Midtown East box — not a Times Square convention PPK and not a Roger PPK.

Open the tapeCompare tapes

  1. The Lexington Hotel New York — DiamondRock disposition · Estimate · Comparescore 124 · $255,586 / key
  2. Sheraton New York Times Square Hotel — Host disposition · Estimate · Comparescore 121 · $209,551 / key
  3. Westin New York Grand Central — Host Hotels disposition · Estimate · Comparescore 118 · $390,181 / key
  4. Boston Park Plaza — Sunstone disposition · Estimate · Comparescore 118 · $349,057 / key
  5. Sheraton Boston Hotel — Host disposition · Estimate · Comparescore 118 · $190,984 / key
  6. Doubletree Guest Suites Times Square — Sunstone leasehold entity sale · Estimate · Comparescore 116 · $1,153,846 / key

    Sunstone 8-K: $540.0 million contractual gross for the entity sale of the leasehold interests in the 468-room Doubletree Guest Suites Times Square. Leasehold — not a fee Midtown PPK.

  • · Income lines include Harbor assumptions you can edit.

Rooms revenue $41.7M · cap 7.00% · teaching NOI $15.0M

Methodology
  • · Direct capitalization: Value = NOI ÷ going-in cap rate.
  • · Room revenue = RevPAR × keys × 365. Total revenue = room revenue ÷ rooms-revenue share.
  • · PIP / renovation reserve is subtracted from the capitalized value as a one-line holdback — not a DCF of the renovation year.
  • · Price-per-key cross-check uses Harbor research bands by segment and market tier.
  • · Sales comparison uses graph transactions scored by segment, market, region, rooms band, recency, affiliation, and whether a public price exists.
  • · NOI stops (FF&E reserve, incentive fee, ground lease) are labels you set. They do not invent dollar amounts.
  • · A NOI you type replaces the teaching stack for the cap. Harbor will not invent that dollar. The shock then is cap ±50 bps only — ADR and occupancy stay labels.
  • · Without a typed NOI, sensitivity shocks going-in cap ±50 basis points against ADR ±10% (occupancy held) and against occupancy ±5 points (ADR held).
  • · Without a typed NOI, the combined stress cell applies all three: wider cap, −10% ADR, and −5 occupancy points. With a typed NOI it is +50 bps on that dollar.
  • · Harbor research defaults are not HVS, PKF, CBRE, or JLL proprietary survey numbers.