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Harborby Signalry
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Folio IV · 4 of 7

The briefs

Buy-side playbook

How a hotel buyer should move: thesis, broker, underwriting, walk, IC, and the written permission to say no.

11 minFirst-time and repeat buyers

The job is not to buy a hotel. The job is to know what has to be true — and to stop when it is not. A close is not a success if the night audit never supported the basis.

The job is not to buy a hotel. The job is to know what has to be true — and to stop when it is not.

Methods · named, not blended

I · Thesis

What has to be true

Segment, keys, market, operator you actually have. A mood is not a filter. Brokers are more useful when you can be declined.

II · Rebuild

CIM as literature

PMS second. Walk third. Price the hotel you will run. Capex they skipped belongs in the basis.

III · Frame

One IC page

Named NOI, written kills, cited tapes only. Implied cap only when your NOI meets a disclosed price.

IV · No

A written stop is a job

Cheaper than the basis you did not take. If the down-left cell dies, say so in English.

Open the labeled estimate · Morning blotter · Compare tapes

01Write the thesis before the teaser

Segment, keys, markets, affiliation, leverage, and the operator you actually have. A thesis that is “trophy in a gateway” is a mood. A thesis that is “80–160 key independent, secondary leisure, we can run the rooms, we will not touch a ground lease under 40 years” is a filter. Brokers are more useful when you can be declined.

02Choose the desk that can kill the deal

Buy-side underwriting and sell-side brokerage are different jobs. If the same mouth is paid to close and to caution, believe the close. Harbor’s choose-broker job exists for a reason. Read the engagement. Ask who else they represent on the asset.

03Rebuild, then walk, then price the next operator

CIM first as literature. PMS second as evidence. Walk third as a human being. Price the hotel you will run, not the hotel the last owner marketed. Capex they skipped belongs in the basis. A brand you have not been awarded does not.

04IC one-pager

One page: thesis, rebuilt T12 versus CIM, going-in cap on a named NOI, PIP, ground lease, operator, kill-switch, and the sensitivity — cap ±50 bps, ADR ±10%. If the equity dies in the down-left cell, say so in English. Harbor’s estimate printout is a start, not the memo.

Questions owners ask

Should I use the sell-side broker as my advisor?
Not as your conscience. They work for the seller. You may still need them for access. You need a separate buy-side brain.
When is a ‘no’ a successful job?
When it is written, evidenced, and cheaper than the basis you did not take. Harbor scores that as integrity.

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